Bitcoin: Interest Is Declining And Price May Soon Follow \n(Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)

KanawatTH\n\nBitcoin (BTC-USD) is one of the most interesting financial assets in modern times to me. The asset is mired in controversy, with avid supporters who believe that its price is set to increase by many multiples in the future and strong detractors who oftentimes believe that Bitcoin isn\\'t worth anything at all.\n\nOnly a very small number of assets have such a high degree of deviation in what investors believe the asset should be trading for, and it reflects an inherent difficulty in answering the question of Bitcoin\\'s true value.\n\nI personally fall into the camp that believes that Bitcoin and most cryptocurrency in general is currently of little to no intrinsic value. I believe this for a myriad of reasons, such as Bitcoin being easily copiable (many have easily launched their own cryptocurrencies with identical properties), as well as it being impractical for transactions without the use of a centralized entity. Furthermore, Bitcoin being the first cryptocurrency, is not as technologically advanced as its successors, which use concepts such as proof of stake.\n\nThat being said, if you took this stance at nearly any point since Bitcoin\\'s inception, it would\\'ve lost you money, so this view won\\'t feature in my analysis.\n\nInstead, my analysis will focus on looking at supply/demand dynamics and analyzing the key factors which influence the supply and demand sides of the Bitcoin market. Looking back over the history of Bitcoin, I believe that taking this approach would\\'ve, in general, led to more accurate trading decisions than focusing solely on trying to determine an intrinsic value for Bitcoin, and then making investment

decisions based on that.\n\nKey Factors Influencing Bitcoin Demand:\n\nThe primary factors which influence the Demand for Bitcoin in my eyes are as follows:\n\nMedia attention on Bitcoin/crypto: In both 2017 and 2021, media attention contributed significantly to Bitcoin\\'s run-up. Ads for various cryptocurrencies could be seen in airports, on public buses or in subways globally. This increased media attention led to increased buying, causing price increases, again garnering more attention. During these periods, it was common to hear people with otherwise little to no interest in finance talking about cryptocurrency, and celebrity promotion of cryptocurrency was widespread. Increased adoption: The recent Bitcoin rally comes at least in part as a result of the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which are highly regulated and thus allow investors who are otherwise cautious of putting their money in Bitcoin to invest, as well as encouraging some degree of increase in institutional adoption. The integrity and reputation of the crypto ecosystem: Interestingly, when events occur which show that there can be consequences for nefarious actors in the crypto community, Bitcoin tends to rally. In some ways, this is a facet of increased adoption, since the rallies are likely based on removing fraudsters from the ecosystem being seen as good for long term investment/adoption. A recent example of this is when Bitcoin rallied in anticipation of the sentencing of Sam Bankman-Fried. This can also have a significant impact on supply, with news of fraud, pushing prices down. Sooner/faster than expected interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit risk-on assets.\n\nKey Factors Influencing Bitcoin Supply:\n\nBitcoin

supply is generally affected by two important factors:\n\nBitcoin\\'s price relative to its recent history: A runup in price can lead to increases in investors looking to sell to lock in gains. Depending on the situation, this effect can however often be counteracted by even more demand to buy, as a result of seeing a runup and hoping it will continue. Bitcoin halving: Every time Bitcoin goes through a halving, the total amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners decreases. Since miners sell Bitcoin to cover costs which they have to pay in fiat currency, less Bitcoin being awarded to miners restricts Bitcoin supply.\n\nAnalysis of Demand Factors:\n\nStarting on the Demand side; it\\'s clear today that the amount of media attention surrounding Bitcoin and crypto as a whole is fairly minimal compared to the attention it garnered in the past, near the peaks of bull runs. In 2021, you couldn\\'t avoid hearing about or seeing ads for crypto if you tried. Today, that promotion is far more subdued.\n\nIn my assessment this can mean one of two things: Firstly, that we\\'re not yet at the top of a bull run, or secondly that after the immense hype surrounding cryptocurrency in 2021 and the number of people that lost money investing in it at the time, the broader public are apathetic towards crypto and Bitcoin, leading to the lower media attention we see today. My assessment is that the latter case is more likely.\n\nBitcoin Price vs Searches Chart (Excel)\n\nThe above chart plotting Bitcoin price vs. Bitcoin Google searches (expressed as a percentage of their all time high figure achieved in 2017), lends evidence to the observation that Bitcoin isn\\'